COP26 -Need to Know
Like most diplomatic events, COP26 is not so much a destination but a journey, with the most recent stops being the UK COP26 Climate Ministerial on 25/26 July; the release of the IPCC Working Group 1 Report on 9 August (click here for our blog); the UN General Assembly between 14-30 September; and then COP26 between 31 October and 12 November.
Understanding where we are now and what can be accomplished at COP26 requires a summary of each of these milestones.
The Diplomatic Journey Through 2021
Held on 25 and 26 July in London, the UK COP26 Climate Ministerial meeting brought together 50 ministers and high-level representatives around an informal agenda covering scaling up adaptation, keeping 1.5°C alive, loss and damage, finalising the Paris Rulebook, and mobilising finance. The purpose of the overall meeting was to begin the process of a successful outcome for COP26, and more particularly, to lay the groundwork for ensuring that global temperatures stay below the 1.5 degree threshold which form the lower limit of the Paris Agreement.
Notably, India didn’t turn up, as it had already made its views clear in a previous meeting in Naples. At that previous meeting, India made clear that net zero targets were not the appropriate measure for commitments, and that per capita targets for reductions were more appropriate. Though India is in the top four countries for global emissions on a tonnage basis, its emissions per capita rank it around 134 in the world. The first step in the management of expectations around an Indian commitment to net zero at COP26 had begun.
Two weeks later the IPCC released the WG1 Report. It signalled several significant findings, most notably that global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered; that 1.5°C and 2°C will likely be exceeded during the 21st century; and that this would cause concurrent and multiple changes in climatic impact-drivers including heavy precipitation and associated flooding in Africa and Asia, North America and Europe.
Mixed Reactions
The IPCC Report was neither a surprise for member countries nor was it disputed. Interestingly, the 195 member countries of the IPCC sign-off on the “summary for policy makers”, after a detailed, line by line discussion between the member countries and the authors. The diversity of response was therefore noteworthy, as countries balanced their external acknowledgment of the science with their internal management of economic and political stakeholders:
1. From the UK Prime Minister: “Today’s report makes for sobering reading, and it is clear that the next decade is going to be pivotal to securing the future of our planet. We know what must be done to limit global warming—consign coal to history and shift to clean energy sources, protect nature, and provide climate finance for countries on the frontline.”
2. From the United States President: “We can’t wait to tackle the climate crisis. The signs are unmistakable. The science is undeniable. And the cost of inaction keeps mounting.”
3. From the French Prime Minister: “The time for indignation is behind us”. (We need) “an agreement at Glasgow that is up to the urgency of this moment.”
4. From the Indian Minister for the Environment: “The report reaffirms India’s position that historical cumulative emissions are the source of the current climate crisis. Our cumulative and per capita emissions are significantly low and far less than the fair share of global carbon budget.”
5. From the Prime Minister of Australia: “‘Technology and not taxes’ will address the climate emergency…We cannot ignore the fact that the developing world accounts for two-thirds of global emissions and those emissions are rising. That is a stark fact... What is important is we ensure the technology breakthroughs that are necessary to transform the world over the next 10, 20, and 30 years are realised.”
As Lord Strang once said “In a world where war is everybody's tragedy and everybody's nightmare, diplomacy is everybody's business”. As we move through the final stops towards the COP26 station, pressure is beginning to mount on those developed countries which have not yet committed to firm targets, including Australia.
The UK’s pledge to cut emissions by 68%, the EU’s pledge to cut by 55%, and the US to cut by 52% by 2030 provide an unlikely consensus of countries which tend to call the shots from a trade and geopolitical perspective. Australia’s current pledge to of 26-28% below 2005 levels by 2030, and India’s 35% by 2035 under the Paris Agreement fall short of their peers. Ban Ki-moon, former UN Secretary-General, put it bluntly: "Australia's current goal of a 26 to 28 per cent reduction on 2005 levels by 2030, and the absence of a national zero emissions target, is out of step with its states, its trading partners, and other comparable nations. It is insufficient to meet Australia's Paris Agreement commitments."
What a Good Outcome at COP26 Looks Like
For those wondering what to hope for, a great meeting would ensure two critical outcomes:
A consensus around the problem, and a globally coordinated commitment to 1.5 degrees; and
An acknowledgement that developed nations can and should help fund the costs of transition for undeveloped nations; and a manifestation of this pledge through increasing the climate finance package from the current US$70B finance delivered annually from all sources to a target north of US$100B annually. Current annual adaptation costs in developing countries are estimated to be between US$140B – US$300b by 2030. Developed countries made a pledge to USD$100B in 2009, which would be delivered by 2020. So far, even meeting this number has been an elusive game of definitions.
COP26 is the first hard test of countries commitments to the Paris Agreement. There are many challenges to be overcome; including how oil and coal resource rich countries will manage the expectations of their stakeholders around monetising what is left of their reserves and manage the transition to an era where the value of those reserves is considered sunk. These are truly difficult obstacles, and will require honesty, transparency, and an awareness among all stakeholders about what is at stake but also what is possible.
Follow our page for more updates at https://www.linkedin.com/company/rennie-partners/